The Philippine Population Growth Situation, A Hidden Momentum Presenting New Opportunities and Challenges
The Philippine Population Growth Situation, A Hidden Momentum Presenting New Opportunities and Challenges
Unregulated population growth results in major issues that affect a country’s institutional and economic development. As of 2020, there are approximately 109 million Filipinos registered in the 2020 Census of Population and Housing (2020 CPH). Population size alone does not provide a clearer picture of the population situation. With this, birth rates, fertility rates, death rates, and the age dependency ratios are also studied.
When the population is left unchecked, it provides major challenges for the country’s efforts to raise living standards, improve employment prospects, provide quality healthcare and education, and reduce the poverty gap. In the 2020 Rapid Nutrition Assessment Survey (RNAS) conducted by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI), more than half of the Filipino households experienced severe food insecurity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This was worsened by the strict implementation of the quarantine restrictions, with the rise of the COVID-19 cases per region. Even if these restrictions are lifted, the effects can still be felt by many Filipinos, with the increasing prices brought upon by both international and local influences.
According to the 2020 CPH, the Philippine population increased by 1.63% annually from 2015 to 2020. With the improved health care and infant mortality rates, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) also reported a 96.6% increase in registered live births from 1995. Furthermore, the same census also reported a crude birth rate of 14.1% per 1000 people. In Figure 1, a slow and steady decreasing trend in birth rates can be observed from 2011-2020, with a small increase between 2018-2019.
Figure 1. The Philippines’ Percentage Change of Registered Live Births (2011 - 2020)
In 2020, the average range of parental ages was 25-29 years, followed by an alarming statistic of 25 births per one thousand women aged 15-19 years. This demographic falls under the “high-risk” age of pregnancy, wherein various complications arise from the pregnancy term to childbirth. This means that childbearing in these age groups have an increased likelihood of experiencing higher morbidity and mortality rates for both the mother and child.
In addition to the birth rates, the fertility rates are also significant in understanding the Philippine population situation. From 1993 to 2022, the Filipino woman’s fertility rate steadily declined, with this year’s total fertility rate (TFR) being 1.9 children per woman. Notably, the TFR for women living in rural areas was slightly higher than the women living in urban areas.
The reduced fertility rate is a by-product of women’s empowerment through quality education and equal access to economic opportunities. Furthermore, child rearing has become very expensive in recent years, which raises the Filipino woman’s opportunity cost to bear a child. It presents both benefits for the labor economy and costs for the imbalances in the future dependency burdens, with the Philippine’s replacement fertility level below the threshold of 2.1 children per woman.
Furthermore, in 2020, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported a 5.6% crude death rate, which means that for every 1,000 people, six deaths are registered in the census. Based on Figure 2, an upward trend can be observed in the Philippines’ registered deaths from 2011 to 2020. Notably, the opposite can also be observed for the years 2017 and 2020, with more male deaths being recorded than female deaths before 80 years old. This is often attributed to occupational hazards and lifestyle, which is reflected in the country’s top three leading causes of death: heart diseases, cancers, and strokes.
Figure 2. The Philippines’ Percentage Change of Registered Deaths (2011 to 2020)
As a country becomes more developed, it enters a stage where it experiences low growth and death rates. However, low birth rates and low fertility rates cannot alter the population situation overnight. This is reflected in the country’s age structure through the population pyramid in Figure 3. The Philippines is a young country, with a high huge youth dependency ratio. With this taken into consideration, even if the Philippines had steadily declining birth and fertility rates over the years, the population growth maintains its momentum because of the large youthful base of potential parents.
Figure 3. The Philippines’ Age-Sex Pyramid (2020)
